We have developed a new blended probabilistic forecast system that takes outputs from our
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models.
This system blends multiple gridded forecasts using a probabilistic approach to produce a
set of probability and percentile forecasts for a range of surface weather variables.
It also calculates a “most likely” weather type, out to a range of seven days, to produce
site-specific forecasts.
Met Office Site-Specific Blended Probabilistic Forecast is recommended for users who want to access site-specific forecasts in a probabilistic
way, with the flexibility to select what data they need for their specific use.
Our new product provides the forecast for single locations, including the chosen parameters
for the selected time frame.
This will enable you to take a range of data that can support more risk-based decisions,
providing a range of probabilities and percentile forecasts to assess the likelihood of
certain weather types taking place,
and help understand the probability of reaching certain thresholds in specific
locations.
For a deterministic forecast value, the 50th percentile, or median, may be used, which is the
percentile which is, on average, closest to the observed value and hence provides the best
deterministic-like forecast of the percentiles. This approach can be useful for presenting
forecast values in a clear format, suitable for a webpage. To learn more about creating a
deterministic forecast from this data set, visit our
guide.
Domain
There are over 5,500 global sites outside the UK and parts of Northern Europe,
and over 7,000 sites within the UK and parts of Northern Europe.
Parameters
Choose from the available parameters to tailor your selection to your specific needs. You can
find the available parameters in our glossary.
Time steps
Available time steps, labelled by date and time*
UK Sites (UK and parts of Northern Europe):
- Every hour from 0 to 129
- Every three hours from 132 to 186
- Every three hours from 3 to 186 (3-hour+ period diagnostics)
- Every 24-hours from 24 to 348 valid at 00Z for daily summary diagnostics
Global Domain (excluding the UK and parts of Northern Europe):
- Every hour from 0 to 129
- Every three hours from 132 to 192
- Every three hours from 3 to 192 (3-hour+ period diagnostics)
- Every three hours from 24 to 348 for daily summary diagnostics
*Some time steps vary by parameter. More details can be found in the Glossary.
Update frequency
This is a dynamic dataset continuously updated by blending multiple data sources. In the UK
Sites (UK and parts of Northern Europe),
we check for new model data every 15 minutes and include it in the probabilistic blend as it
becomes available.
For the first 5 days of the forecast we include data from models that run 24 updates per
day. Beyond day 5 we get new model data every 6 hours.
In the global domain (excluding the UK and parts of Northern Europe), the data is currently updated 4 times per day.
In the global domain (excluding the UK and parts of Northern Europe), the data is currently
updated 4 times per day.
Delivery
API
Format
CovJSON
